The local body elections in Kerala, threw up a clear winner in CPM led LDF while Congress led UDF losing big time, while BJP managing to win two Municipalities, but disappointed in not being able to win the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation elections.
The elections to 6 Corporations, 86 municipalities, 152 block panchayats, 941 gram panchayats, 14 Zilla Panchayat was held over 3 phases and the counting began this morning. It’s not surprising that the CPM led LDF managed to win 5 Corporations, 35 municipalities, 112 of Block panchayats and 514 Gram Panchayats in what has transpired to be a wholesale vote transfer by Congress led UDF to the LDF candidates. This was further aided by the Jose K Mani’s Kerala Congress moving to led UDF, which ensured that the party strongholds were in the LDF pocket. The only saving grace for UDF was the solid performance by Indian Union Muslim League in their traditional pocket borough of Mallapuram, Wayanad and nearby districts.
The LDF traditionally has 25% of its vote bank, cultivated through its long standing hold on families that are wedded to the Communist philosophy that often starts with school days when student unions like SFI have a stranglehold on their thinking process. This is then reinforced by DYFI and the trade union culture that is part of every other institution in Kerala. Then there are co-operative institutions that the party runs and which ensures employment opportunities for their party followers – thus locking up the loyalty of the beneficiaries.
A close look at the Municipal Corporation results shows that LDF at 24 and UDF at 23 are neck in the 55 wards at stake. With just one independent, either of the fronts, will have to seek the support to BJP which has won 6 wards. The Kochi Municipal Corporation where Congress had a fair chance of retaining its rule, was thwarted by infighting, and the present Soumini Jain decided not to contest. Of the 74 seats, LDF won 34 and UDF 31, well short of the majority mark. BJP has won 5 seats and Independents 4 wards. LDF has won Kannur, Kollam Kozhikode while UDF has won Kannur Municipal Corporation.
BJP which had ruled the Palakkad Municipality despite not getting a simple majority last time, romped home. The second Municipality that came the BJP way was Pandalam, home of Lord Ayyappa and it won 18 seats in the 31 member municipality, displacing LDF rule. In 2015 elections, BJP had won just 7 seats here and the jmp to 18 seats is a reflection of the fact that the residents of this town have not forgotten the way the Sabarimala shrine was desecrated by the LDF Govt.
Then there are a battle of equals – in Chengannur UDF got 14 while NDA came second with 8 wards and LDF got just 1 seat, while in Mavelikara UDF and BJP are tied at 9 seats each while LDF came second with 8 seats while independents got 2 – and here again, it’s a toss-up.
What do these results foretell? It’s clear that Congress led UDF will become irrelevant in the days to come, as its core voter base has shrunk. It’s hanging on to the coattails of IUML and other splinter parties. The Mani group led PJ Joseph has been decimated in its area of contention thereby depriving Congress of a stronghold like Pala and nearby areas.
For BJP the results have again shown that sticking to its core Hindutva ideology helps, but the party is the target of both LDF and UDF in a common enemy. BJP needs to quickly announce its candidates for the assembly elections that are likely to be held in a couple of months’ time. That will give the party candidates enough time to drill down the schemes of the Modi government that have benefited the citizens of the state.
For CPM, the days to come will see the noose tightening from the slew of cases that are being probed by Enforcement Directorate, CBI and Customs. While the party leaders claim victory in the local polls, which are largely fought on local issues, personal influence and work done by the sitting corporators – the assembly elections are going to be a different cup of tea. The BJP central leadership is likely to throw in their entire party apparatus into the battle and go aggressive as it did during the recent GHMC elections in Hyderabad.
Whatever said and done, politics is the art of the possible. In Kerala, that holds true.
