India needs 188 cr doses of Vaccine to complete the Vaccination process. 94 cr people x 2 doses. Today, we completed 15 cr vaccinations. That leaves us with 173 cr doses to be secured. If the target is to complete both the doses by end of 2021, then we need to vaccinate 22 cr people every month, starting 1st May 2021.
Presently, Serum Institute of India is producing 7 to 8 cr doses a month. On the other hand, Bharat Biotech is producing 1 cr vaccines a month. That is a total of 9 crore vaccines. From 15th May, SII bolstered by the financial infusion by Union Government will increase it’s production to 12 cr and Bharat Biotech with money they got from GOI, will ramp up to 7 cr. So, revamped total: 19 cr.
That makes it 152 cr doses by December 2021. That leaves us 20 cr short, which Sputnik can fill in. Now, if more vaccines come in, then the December deadline might get preponed to October. If that happens, then both SII and Bharat Biotech can hit the export markets where they can fulfill their contracts with Astra Zeneca (SII) and GAVI. These two companies can also get better value realisation.
Despite all the hype that the 18 to 44 age group trying to desperately register for the vaccine, only 3.6 cr people have registered till now. The reason possibly lies in rural areas where registration is yet to pick up.
Going forward, if the Nasal Vaccine of Bharat Biotech gets nod, then we will see a faster move into the booster segment. Also crucial will be the development of vaccines for those in the age bracket of 2 to 18 years.
