Team of experts from IIT Kanpur, who are working on Covid-19 prediction model, have claimed that the second wave was slowing down in the country.
Profs. Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma, along with their team at IIT Kanpur, are working to provide model “Covid-19 Prediction Model” for forecasts up to district-wise granularity.
According to the latest model observations , coronavirus cases has peaked in the first week of May and is currently on steep decline except for a few states.
The average count of daily cases has become nearly 60 per cent of its value on May 8, 2021 due to interventions.
It says Test positivity rate (TPR) has also reduced from very high value of about 23% on May 8, 2021 to about 12% now due to increased daily testing capacity.
The Case fatality rate (CFR) had increased to nearly 1.7% but is expected to go down soon with decrease in active infections.
High TPR ( >20%) states identified are Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Northeast states.
Low TPR (< 10%) states are UP, Delhi, Gujarat, Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, MP, Chhatisgarh, J&K, Punjab, Telangana and Uttarakhand.
Lowest CFRs were recorded in Odisha (0.2%), Kerala (0.5%) while highest CFRs are in Delhi (8%) and Maharashtra (3.7%).
It further opined that states yet to saturate are West Bengal, Odisha along with all Northeast states.